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Old 07-21-2008, 10:09 AM
gamblers gamblers is offline
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Default Good fold or bad fold squirrel?

Okay I would be interested in your thoughts on my play in this live tournament. I had 66 in the BB. We were about halfway through and I had a middling to low stack, but far more than 10 times the big blind. There was a raise in early position followed by an all in and 2 calls. I passed and the early raiser called. I still had my cards as I had made a verbal fold. I turned over the 66. A good younger player said that I should have called as I had pot odds. I said that I thought not because I could hit my hand and with that many people in the pot it probably would still not be best hand.

As it turned out one of the callers had 7T suited and hit the flush to stuff the AK, aces and TT. He took some flak for it but in all honesty I would rather play 7T in this position than 66. But what won is irrelevant in a way. Was I right? I have thought about this. What i wonder is should I have called even if I didn't have the odds simply because the pot was so large and I had a chance of winning a very big pot. Given the position that this small chance of winning the pot would have put me in the tourney, maybe I should have called. Does this give the call a positive or negative ev?
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Old 07-21-2008, 10:15 AM
gamblerman gamblerman is offline
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I put the math to it and this is what I came up with. I had to do a little guess work here because you didn't mention who had what suits.

AA both not spades 55.37% tie 0.30%
AK. King is a spade. 4.73% tie 0.30%
1010 Neither a spade 8.77% tie 2.39%
66 Neither a spade 17.36% tie 0.12%
710 both spades 11.20% tie 2.39%

Oddly enough you were in second place at that time.

However, ask yourself this. Do you really want to be in a multiway pot with only a pair of 6s?

As far as EV is concerned you are not giving out enough information.

The pot would have to be laying 5.84 to 1 on your chip stack at the minimum. I would need to know your stack size and the size of the pot. It indeed would have to be a big pot. The pot would have to be almost 20500 for you to make the call assuming your stack to be 3500. Just and example. Let's say you have 4000 and the pot was 19k. Then you don't have the odds in that case. If the person going all in was a smaller stack than yours there is no way you could call because at best you odds were less than 5 to 1.

Do you really want to put your whole tournament life on the line for a pair of 66s know that at least one of the hands almost has to be an AA. And there being a good chance that the other is a KK?

You really don't want to play 66 for all your chips in a multiway pot.
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